This episode takes us into the world of foreign policy bluffing, nuclear strategy, and presidential unpredictability. We’re talking about the Madman Theory -- a term associated with colourful US Presidents like Richard Nixon or Donald Trump in combination with words like "unhinged" or "strategic genius". But what is the Madman Theory, really? Does acting crazy help a world leader win concessions? And what does the data actually say?

Prof. Patrick Kuhn, a Professor of Comparative Politics at Durham University's School of Government and International Affairs (SGIA) and convenor of Analytical Politics, a second year UG module, unpacks the theoretical mechanism underlying the madman gambit and reviews the existing empirical evidence, before considering the extent to which the madman strategy will work for President Trump in his second term.

To learn more about Prof. Patrick Kuhn's research, visit his website at https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/p-m-kuhn/

Literature referred to:

• Drezner, Daniel W. 2025. It's a Mad Mad Mad Madman's World: I see we're gonna be testing the madman theory in 2025. Online at: https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/its-a-mad-mad-mad-madmans-world [Last accessed: 23. May 2025].
• McManus, Roseanne W. 2019. Revisiting the Madman Theory: Evaluating the Impact of Different Forms of Perceived Madness in Coercive Bargaining. Security Studies 28(5),976-1009
• McManus Roseanne W. 2021. Crazy Like a Fox? Are Leader with Reputations of Madness More Successful at International Coercion? British Journal of Political Science 51, 275-293.
• Schwartz, Joshua A. 2023. Manman or Mad Genius? The International Benefits and Domestic Costs of the Madman Strategy. Security Studies 32(2), 271-305.

Music: The Good News by SHANTI from https://tunetank.com/track/263-the-good-news/