In my free time today, I’m talking about how one simple but powerful rule — thinking in probabilities — has helped me make better decisions in life, work, and relationships.

From my early days playing Blackjack and poker to how I now approach creating content on YouTube, I explain how the logic of risk and reward can completely change the way you see everything around you — your investments, health, marriage, patience, and ultimately… life itself.

You’ll learn:

• How probability-based thinking protects you from bad decisions and burnout

• Why YouTube is the longest-term “bet” you can make

• How to enjoy the process when nothing is guaranteed

• Why discipline and consistency matter more than luck

• How to find “value” in every area of life — from betting and marriage to health and career

If you’re tired of feeling like your decisions are driven by instinct or luck, this episode will help you see life through a mathematical — yet deeply human — lens.

🙏 SUPPORT

If you’d like to support my work, I can send you the original scripts of each episode straight to your inbox the moment they go live: https://jmks.co/support

🧠 TIMESTAMPS

[00:00] Intro – The Simple Rule Behind Every Decision

[01:43] The Sunday Story That Led to This Episode

[05:25] The First Time I Realized Life Runs on Probabilities

[07:23] When Luck Turned Into Math

[08:04] Risk vs Probability – What’s the Difference

[08:36] The Moment I Was Right and Everyone Else Was Wrong

[09:13] The Human Factor You Can’t Calculate

[10:16] When Money Tests Your Logic

[11:40] How to Lose Less When You Can’t Win

[13:05] Why Most People See Betting as Gambling

[13:46] Can Life Ever Be Fair When Probabilities Aren’t

[14:29] When I Stopped Being Just an Observer of Life

[15:03] Applying Blackjack Logic to Everyday Decisions

[16:10] The Hard Lesson Poker Taught Me About Patience

[18:33] The Hardest Decision I Ever Made Based on Math

[19:11] When Analysis Becomes Enjoyment

[19:54] What Blackjack and YouTube Have in Common

[20:38] The True Meaning of “Value” in Content Creation

[21:59] YouTube as the Longest Bet You’ll Ever Place

[22:26] When a Video Doesn’t Hit – Luck or Small Sample Size

[23:25] How Thinking in Probabilities Prevents Burnout

[24:26] Why Consistency Always Beats Random Success

[25:39] Measuring “Value” in Marriage and Relationships

[26:57] Making Choices Even When the Odds Are Against You

[27:41] Was Working Solo a Mathematically Correct Decision

[28:11] Health Habits as Positive-EV Investments

[28:51] Do the Odds Even Out Over Time

[29:42] Avoiding a Negative Life Expectancy

[30:18] Staying Balanced in a Risky World

[30:40] The Illusion of Control and Calculated Odds

[30:59] Life Summed Up in a Blackjack Quote

[31:03] What’s Scarier – Losing or Not Playing at All

[31:26] Do Good Decisions Bring Luck or Vice Versa

[32:24] Would You Want to Know the Exact Odds of Success

[32:56] If Everything Is Probability, Then What Is Certainty

🔗 LINKS

🎦 Podcast episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/_C0jhH1ZL6c

🎙️ Podcasting Challenges as a Non-Native Speaker: ⁠⁠https://jimmakos.com/podcasting/⁠⁠

🙏 LEAVE A REVIEW

If you enjoyed listening to the podcast, I'd love for you to leave a 5-star review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify to help others discover the show!

🎙 ABOUT THE PODCAST

Off Route is my podcast, where I'm sharing what worked for me in gambling, personal finance, and running a web publishing business as a solopreneur working from home while I'm documenting a healthier life in Greece.

Thank you for listening,

Jim