When valuing a cyclical wholesale retailer one cannot simply apply a multiple. At depressed earnings after a post-covid bull-whip effect and economic downturn, AOs future earnings power is understated in my opinion.

The market's belief in a reversion to the mean doesn't factor in the substantial investments in IT and infrastructure made by the company pre-covid. This makes AO an attractive investment prospect with minimal risk of terminal capital loss.

$AOJ trades at an estimated forward FCF-yield of 10%, having historically grown FCF 15% per year. I foresee a solid shareholder return of about 15-25% per year for the next 3-5 years, when the increased earnings power is recognized by the market.

Not investment advice, but merely my take on an interesting company.