The US Supreme Court is currently evaluating President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs, with justices from both conservative and liberal wings expressing skepticism.
Trump’s tariff policy has far-reaching effects on the global supply chain, including significant impacts on India’s IT, export, and energy sectors.
The tariffs, enacted via the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), have been ruled illegal by lower courts, citing that only Congress has the power to regulate commerce.
The Supreme Court’s final ruling could force a refund of billions collected in tariffs and would create substantial uncertainty and operational chaos for US businesses as well as global partners like India.
If struck down, trade experts believe the US may retain some tariffs through other channels, but the immediate impact would be a reduction in barriers, benefiting export-driven Indian companies.
Expect continued volatility until the ruling; short-term instability could be followed by longer-term export gains for India if tariffs are reduced.
On the previous trading day, foreign investors (FIIs) were net sellers, offloading about ₹3,600 crore, continuing a trend of foreign outflows.
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) stepped up as buyers, with net purchases of ₹4,800 crore.
This FII vs. DII dynamic is shaping India’s market resilience, helping to cushion sell-offs, but upward moves face resistance.
The Nifty 50 closed down 88 points at 25,510, pressured by weak global cues.
Metals, power, and real estate stocks were the biggest laggards, losing between 1.5% and 2.5% on the day.
India’s IT sector showed small gains, and select blue-chip stocks like Reliance and Asian Paints remained stable.
The rupee remained steady and did not show significant volatility.
Gift Nifty futures dropped by around 100 points overnight, suggesting Nifty will open weaker and that domestic buyers may hesitate to defend support levels at the open.
Key Nifty support: 25,500 to 25,450; if broken decisively, further downside to 25,300 is likely, coinciding with technical support and significant option interest.
Resistance: 25,600–25,800; overall technicals show bearish patterns with lower highs and lower lows, warranting caution.
Bank Nifty watch: Support at 57,400–57,000; resistance at 58,500.
Crude oil stays stable near $60 per barrel, gold hovers around $4,000, and silver is around $48, with no major disruptions.
Base metals remain supported globally.
The bias for the day is to the downside, reflecting global nervousness and persistent foreign selling pressure.
It is wise to avoid chasing rallies at the open; strength above 25,500 should be used for selling.
Real buying should wait until there is confirmation of support holding at 25,450; if this level breaks, next support is 25,300–25,275.
Conservative positioning is recommended until clarity emerges, especially with the Supreme Court’s US tariff ruling pending.
The market is set for a weak open, but historically, periods of weakness have created opportunities for disciplined investors.
Stay tuned for evening updates for a detailed analysis of market behavior and positioning for the week ahead.