In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the states of the global economy. Most of the world’s major economies have shown signs of slowing, as tariff riskremains the biggest and most common obstacle to growth. Fortunately, recessiondoesn’t appear on the horizon, supporting the global expansion and equities.
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S1:E25
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In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses how macroeconomic conditions impact equity markets. The U.S. typically performs best when economic growth is above potential with low inflation, while having its worst performance during stagflation (low growth, high inflation) environments. Alejandra also discusses this analysis for Europe and Japan.
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S1:E24
In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the trajectories for the U.S. and Chinese economies. In the first half of the year, China exceeded its government's growth goal of 5%, while economic sentiment in the U.S. lagged relative to other parts of the world. For the second half of the year, conditions in China are likely to soften, while the U.S. could see some upside surprises.
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S1:23
In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the second half outlook for the global economy. Policy uncertainty has been a key influence so far in 2025. Most of the major economies we monitor will likely see slower economic growth in the second half of the year due to the impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Fortunately, recession doesn’t appear on the horizon anywhere, except for Japan, where recessions are common given low potential growth.
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In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the state of the economy post Liberation Day. Due to the persistent uncertainty, NDR reduced its real GDP growth forecast, indicating a slowing economy, but not falling into recession at this time. So far, global trade has remained resilient as economies adapt. Inflation in the U.S. is likely to be higher a year from now, but unlikely to approach post-pandemic reopening highs.
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S1:21
In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the trajectory of the economy. Prior to the reciprocal tariff announcement, hard economic data looked favorable. However, more responsive soft economic data, such as surveys, painted a weaker outlook. If fully implemented, tariffs could have a dual-negative impact on the economy by increasing the price of goods and services, while creating downside risks to economic growth. This combination would create a significant monetary policy challenge for the Federal Reserve.
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S1:20
In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the global economy including growth, inflation, and tariffs. Although global economic activity has slowed, leading indicators continue to point to positive growth. Higher tariffs are likely to increase U.S. inflation, which could slow the Fed’s easing. The U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc are more likely to see gains when global policy uncertainty increases.
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S1:E19
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In this episode, NDR's Senior U.S. Economist Veneta Dimitrova discusses the next decade through our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. We believe there are five major themes that will impact the global economy and the investment world over the next decade: AI, energy revolution, aging demographics, receding globalization, and global fiscal challenges. On net, we expect somewhat slower global real GDP growth and lower inflation through 2034 than over the previous decade.
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S1:E18
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In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the outlook for the global economy in 2025. 2024 has been a good year for the global economy, with real GDP expected to rise more than 3%. We expect global growth to remain constructive in 2025, in line with its pace in 2024. With three-quarters of the world’s central banks now in easing cycles, easier monetary policy should help boost the expansion next year. However, 2025 is riddled with higher uncertainty, the most obvious being the risk of broad-based tariffs from the U.S.
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S1:E17
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In the latest Ned Davis Research podcast, See the Signals, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the U.S. economy. Prior to the election, the U.S. economy was outperforming its G7 counterparts. However, there are risks to outlook if proposed policies swell the government’s budget deficit and debt. A resulting fast runup in yields could cause U.S. equities to stumble. Looking internationally, proposed tariffs on exports to the U.S. could have a significant impact on Mexico, Canada, and Vietnam.
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S1:E16
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In the latest Ned Davis Research podcast, See the Signals, Brian Sanborn, NDR's Global Head of Investment Solutions, sat down with Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal to discuss the state of China's economy and the impact of recent stimulus measures. China's growth has slowed considerably in 2023 due to structural issues and challenges in key sectors like retail and real estate. However, despite these headwinds, government intervention through broad-based stimulus aims to support the 5% GDP growth target for the year. While these measures may provide short-term relief, Alejandra highlights that China's long-term growth trajectory remains weighed down by deteriorating demographics, deglobalization, and rising debt.
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S1:E15
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In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses Japan. Following the Bank of Japan's monetary policy shift to tightening, the financial markets reacted negatively. Will that prevent the BoJ from further tightening? Probably not, due to numerous factors including inflation, the Taylor rule, and yen undervaluation. In fact, Japan's target rate may rise to 1% by the end of 2025.
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S1:E14
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In this episode, NDR's Senior U.S. Economist Veneta Dimitrova discusses the U.S. economic outlook. Although peak growth rates in this cycle are in the rearview mirror, the risk of recession in the near-term remains low. With slower disinflation expected in the coming months, one or two rates cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely on the horizon.
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S1:E13
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NDR | In a world full of first rate cuts... In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses global monetary policy. Although the Fed has yet to cut rates, other central banks such as the ECB and Bank of Canada have started easing. Alejandra reviews the historical impact of first-rate cuts on equities, interest rates, and currencies for both Europe and Canada.
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S1:E12
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In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the current state of the global economy. The global economy showed continued signs of accelerating momentum. However, successive gains in the PMI usually don’t last much longer than six months, suggesting that the composite could take a short breather soon. One standout continues to be India. India’s economy has been one of the most reliable sources of growth among the world’s largest economies for a couple of years now.
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S1:E11
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In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses global monetary policy. Japan has effectively ended Negative Interest Rate Policy, while central banks in Latin America and Switzerland have been easing. Historically, the best period for equities has been when more than half of the world’s central banks have been in easing cycles. However, the bullish case for equities may depend on whether the Fed pivots to easing.
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S1:E10
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In this episode, in honor of International Women’s Day and Women’s History Month, Amy Lubas, NDR's VP of Investment Solutions interviews Alejandra Grindal, NDR's Chief Economist who discusses trends by women in the labor force. She notes that female participation in the prime age labor force has soared all over the world, outpacing that of males. In the U.S., there has been a notable surge in participation among Millennial women, who spend more and differently than their male counterparts. The rise in Millennial female participation should have positive implications for the economy and equities in the long-term.
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S1:E9
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In this episode, NDR's Chief U.S. Strategist Ed Clissold discusses the impact of the U.S. Presidential Election cycle on the markets. Ed reviews the four-year cycle's strongest and weakest periods, how the market may behave this year depending on the election's outcome, and which industries and sectors to watch. _________________________________________
S1:E8
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In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses whether the global economy is on the verge of recession. The global economic lull we saw in the second half of 2023 appears to be abating as we start 2024. Alejandra notes that the weight of the evidence points to a low risk of global recession, as only one indicator in NDR’s Global Recession Watch report is giving a negative signal.
S1:E6
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In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the potential for a soft landing versus no landing. Although recent data have reflected an overheating economy, the soft-landing scenario, of below-trend economic growth and continued disinflation, is more likely as the delayed impact of tight monetary policy, ebbing excess pandemic savings, rising consumer delinquencies, and political risk at home and abroad weigh on output this year. A soft-landing scenario of slow growth and low inflation is consistent with above average equity returns.
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S1:E6
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