Major equity markets surge to new highs, driven by easing trade tensions, robust US earnings, and expectations of US interest rate cuts even as US inflation remains a concern. This trend is also reflected in US investment-grade credit spreads, which have reached their lowest level since 1998. Meanwhile, Indian markets are up over 1% today, following news of a planned cut in consumption tax. Looking ahead, investors are eagerly anticipating several key events this week, including today's meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump in Washington DC, the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, and Fed Chair Jay Powell's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, shares his insights on what market breadth reveals about our regional equity preferences from a technical perspective.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Yesterday’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data prompted a reassessment of rate cut expectations, driving yields and the US dollar higher. Although most stocks fell, the S&P 500 managed to eke out a marginal gain, largely due tothe strong performance of major tech companies. Notably, Intel’s stock jumped on news that the Trump administration was considering taking a stake in the beleaguered chipmaker. Attention now turns to the upcoming Trump-Putin summit, where discussions may significantly impact safe-haven assets like gold and the Swiss franc. To explore the potential implications and trading opportunities, Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions, shares his insights.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Benchmark equity indices in the US, Italy, Spain, and the UK have surged to new highs, fuelled by a benign US inflation report and Germany's inflation data confirming a sub-2% reading. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says US interest rates could be 150 to 175 basis points lower. Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high, with Ether also close to its record high. Japanese shares are down on a stronger yen, after previously reaching a record high. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, weighs in on the energy market outlook: from oil to gas and Friday's US-Russia summit.
The latest US inflation figures for July sent stocks soaring to new all-time highs once again. With a 25 basis-point rate cut in September now widely anticipated by market participants, expectations are running high. In contrast, European markets underperformed due to disappointing economic data from Germany. Joining us today are Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research. Dario shares his rationale for why he doesn't foresee any significant yield spikes, while Mathieu provides insight into the challenges facing the pharmaceutical sector and the shifting landscape of market leadership in Europe.
The main question on everyone’s mind is whether today's US inflation report will corroborate the narrative of easing inflation, potentially paving the way for a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in September. A stronger-than-expected inflation figure would serve as a reality check for investors. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments, such as the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, and trade news, including the extension of the US-China trade truce, are dominating the headlines. Overnight, the Australian central bank cut interest rates, whilst Japanese shares reached new record highs. Joining us on the show to discuss the recent surge in Bitcoin and Ethereum is Manuel Villegas from our Next Generation Research team.
US stocks are on a tear with the S&P 500 trading just a whisker below its all-time high and the Nasdaq shining thanks to renewed enthusiasm around tech and artificial intelligence stocks. European stocks are also having a good run with banks in the lead. However, Switzerland has been lagging after the hefty 39% levies on Swiss exports to the US took effect on Thursday. This week’s inflation data will be decisive in terms of whether markets can rally further. Joining us this morning is Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his insights on the direction of US yields and explains why he believes in a rise in gold prices during the second half of this year.
Once again, investors are facing a flood of news to digest – from tariff updates, such as Japan’s announcement that the US will end the stacking of universal tariffs and cut levies on cars; to central bank developments, including the Bank of England’s rate decision and the appointment of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors; to company-specific headlines, such as Eli Lilly’s latest study results; and geopolitical updates, including a potential Trump - Putin meeting. Joining us to discuss the latest developments in the currencies and metals markets is Tim Gagie, our Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Markets are in a positive mood, driven by corporate earnings that are exceeding expectations, and this is despite further 'tariff sabre-rattling' by President Donald Trump, who announced a potential 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors that are not manufactured in the US. Meanwhile, Switzerland has yet to successfully negotiate a reduction in the US tariff of 39%. Yields are slightly higher this morning, partly due to the underwhelming demand in yesterday’s auction of new 10-year US Treasuries. For insights into the bank's investment strategy, we are joined by Nicolas Jordan from the CIO Investment Analysis team.
With tariffs on Switzerland still in focus, a small Swiss delegation travels to Washington to negotiate a resolution. Meanwhile, emerging tariff threats for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are weighing on market sentiment. Beyond trade developments, investors must digest a slew of macroeconomic figures and reports from the ongoing earnings season. The US Federal Reserve is also in the spotlight, especially after President Trump announced his intention to nominate a new Fed Chair by the end of the week. To provide clarity amidst the market turmoil, we welcome Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, our Head of Equity Strategy, to the show today.
European and US stocks staged a recovery rally yesterday, although the Swiss market trailed behind following the recent 39% tariff shock. Meanwhile, yields have fallen sharply across Europe due to robust real money demand. In the US, yields have also dipped slightly, as markets now largely anticipate a 25 basis-point rate cut in September. With a comprehensive update on the current state of the Swiss property market, we are joined by Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory and Intelligence.
President Trump’s team delivered more tariff surprises ahead of the weekend with conditions worsening for both Canada and Switzerland. Then the jobs data delivered some ugly news for the US economy, with severe downward revisions to May and June’s data which saw the bearer of the tidings - the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics – lose her job. Added to this, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announced her early departure from office, leaving the President with two new job announcements to make. It’s therefore no surprise that equity markets fell, and US treasuries rallied, as markets more than doubled their previous day’s bet on a September rate cut to 87.5%. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the podcast today to provide insights into how the tariff news might impact Swiss investors as he discusses rates, the Swiss franc and Swiss equities.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has tempered expectations that the central bank may cut interest rates at its September meeting, leading to a modest decline in stock prices. However, after the close of trading, both Microsoft and Meta reported strong earnings for Q2, with their shares rising substantially, which could set the stage for a positive trading day ahead. Meanwhile, Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Sales in Geneva, offers his insights on the current strength of the US dollar and identifies potential opportunities as we head into August.
European equities rebounded yesterday, driven by largely positive earnings, as the IMF upgraded its global growth forecast for this year and next, citing reduced US trade war impact and a weaker US dollar. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk makes headlines with a 30% share dive on revised sales and profit guidance, and US equities lose steam ahead of today’s Fed meeting. For more on the earnings season so far and ahead of the four mega-cap tech stocks that are scheduled for this week, we have Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, on the show.
The long-awaited trade deal between the EU and the US only provided a temporary boost to the markets, with concerns swiftly being voiced in Europe. Many described the agreement as one-sided, favouring US interests. Following the announcement, the US dollar strengthened while the price of gold plummeted to a three-week low. Meanwhile, oil prices rose, driven by the trade deal and President Trump’s renewed pressure on Russia. Attention now turns to US monetary policy, with the Federal Open Market Committee commencing its two-day meeting today.
Joining us on the show to discuss the implications of last week's European Central Bank decision and provide insight into this week's rate decision in the US is our Chief Economist, David Kohl.
The European Union and the United States have reached a significant trade agreement, substantially reducing the likelihood of an all-out trade war. While some details remain unclear, the markets have responded favourably to the announcement. In a related development, Chinese and US officials are set to convene in Stockholm today to discuss easing trade tensions. Markets have a lot to digest this week with the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the latest US jobs data due. Also, it is a busy week for company earnings reports, with four of the Mag7 companies reporting, among other. As always on Mondays, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins us to share his views on markets from a technical analysis perspective.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Earnings remain in the spotlight, with notable gains in the banking sector, while Tesla tumbled amid US policy headwinds. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and offered a modestly upbeat assessment of the eurozone economy, raising doubts among investors about further policy easing, even while US tariff threats still cloud the outlook. This pushed yields higher and weighed on gold. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva, explains why the precious metal has consolidated since Liberation Day, and why he agrees with the consensus view of higher prices for metals.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Global equity markets rally on US-Japan trade deal progress, sparking hopes for EU agreements, with equities surging and gold easing. Japan’s Nikkei 225 reaches a new all-time high, as does the S&P 500. In earnings: Alphabet surprises positively, while Tesla disappoints. Companies reporting today include industry giants like Nestle, Roche, Deutsche Bank, and LVMH. The ECB is not expected to cut rates today, with the market’s focus on its outlook. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses China's historic new hydropower project – which is six times bigger than the Three Gorges Dam – and explores its potential impact on iron ore and steel prices.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
The current earnings season is proving particularly intriguing, with some companies surpassing analyst expectations and others struggling, particularly due to the impact of US tariffs. On the subject of tariffs, the recently announced US-Japan trade deal has boosted market confidence and fuelled optimism that others, such as the European Union, may also be able to secure similar deals. Meanwhile, attention is slowly but surely shifting towards interest rate decisions, with the ECB set to announce its decision tomorrow and the US Federal Reserve scheduled to follow next week. Joining us on the show today is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who provides an update and outlook on the crypto space.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
The US stock market reached new heights, driven by the strong performance of several of the top tech giants, but the broader market failed to follow suit. Meanwhile, government bond yields declined across the board as the deadline for President Trump's trade negotiations, set for 1 August, draws closer. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, offers his insights on the Japanese market in the aftermath of the recent election upheaval and provides a comprehensive overview of the earnings season thus far.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Japan's Upper House election has sparked market uncertainty after the ruling LDP coalition lost control. Nevertheless, the JPY remained surprisingly stable. The S&P 500 and MSCI World indices reached new heights last week, bolstered by robust economic data and impressive corporate earnings. The US Congress passes legislation regulating stablecoins, thereby giving credibility to the digital asset industry. According to Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, the CHF is likely to maintain its strength, and small- and mid-cap stocks are currently preferred over large-cap equivalents in the Swiss equities market.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.