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(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Aug. 25-29, 2025)
Significant Economic Indicators & Reports
Monday
The annual rate of new home sales fell 0.6% in July and was more than 8% below its year-ago pace, the Commerce Department reported. The sales pace was below the pre-pandemic level for the seventh month in a row, and the supply of new houses on the market remained above the pre-pandemic mark as it has since January 2022. As a result of weaker demand and stronger supply, the median sales price in July was nearly 6% lower than the year before, at $403,800.
Tuesday
Overall housing inflation continued to decelerate in June, slipping under the general pace of inflation for the second month in a row, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national index. Month-to-month, prices actually decreased 0.3% from May, after adjusting for seasonal fluctuation. And compared to the year before, prices rose 1.9% in June vs. 2.7% inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index. An analyst for the index cited a “continuation of a decisive shift in the housing market” in which price increases may be tracking closer to overall inflation. That would mean slower wealth accumulation for homeowners but a healthier housing market long-term.
Manufacturing demand dropped in July for the third time in four months, mostly on the wings of fallen orders for commercial aircraft. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders sank 2.8% from June, though they were up 7.3% from July 2024. Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 1.1% in July, with a 1.9% increase from the same time last year. Orders for core capital goods orders, a measure of business investment, gained 1.1% from June and were up 2.3% from July 2024.
Amid growing concerns about tariffs and their contribution to inflation, consumer confidence declined slightly in August, though it stayed near the mood of the past three months. The Conference Board reported that overall expectations stayed at a level associated with recessions, and consumer views of the job market fell for the eighth month in a row. The business research group said consumers’ outlook for stocks fell slightly, with about half expecting stock prices to rise in the next year and about 30% expecting lower prices.
Wednesday
No major releases
Thursday
Because of slightly higher consumer spending and a lower decline in investments in the second quarter, the U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% annual pace instead of an initial estimate of 3% growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said it raised its estimate for the gross domestic product in part because personal consumption – which accounts for about 70% of economic growth – rose at a 1.6% annual rate, up from a prior estimate of 1.4%. It was the second weakest quarter for consumer spending in two years. Economic growth also looked better in the second quarter because of a drop in imports, which surged in the first quarter as companies anticipated higher tariffs. Imports detract from GDP. The Federal Reserve Board’s favorite measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose 2.4% from the year before, the smallest increase since the third quarter of 2024.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row, suggesting greater willingness by employers to let workers go.
