In today's Markets Happy Hour podcast we are recording in the middle of a flurry of trade news flow on the eve of the August 1 tariff deadline. We know, as we record, that the deadline has been extended by 90 days with respect to Mexico and much uncertainty is still in place. However the "twist" in the tale or the "plot twist" of the title refers to the subtle but perceptible change in how the US is being regarded in these trade negotiations as it increasingly flexes its muscle and grows more confident, seemingly leaving its counterparties with little morale. We discuss in particular the "lose, lose, lose, lose" case of Europe.Moving to other matters we discuss the strong Q2 GDP growth figure in the US, and how this lowers the odds of an imminent rate cut, and dissect an earnings season that has been very bi-polar. With old economy stocks on the one hand struggling to maintain margins and cope with even early tariff pressure, tech companies are continuously beating expectations and enjoying an uplift in their share price accordingly. We await the US jobs figure tomorrow to receive more granular detail on the state of the US economy and while AI hype continues to rage, we may well see some of the collateral damage that that causes. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.