In this episode:

• April marked by record volatility: The Nasdaq 100 rebounded from a 15% drawdown in just a few weeks, while bonds, currencies, and commodities experienced exceptional swings. Trading desks benefited from this environment, whereas traditional asset managers struggled.
• Macro signals remain mixed: Although some indicators normalized after "Liberation Day," the overall picture remains fragile. U.S. imports from China have collapsed, perceived inflation is on the rise, and corporate earnings are being revised downward. Mega-cap tech stocks are holding up, but recession risks remain elevated.
• Still defensive positioning, but beware of upside risk: Systematic funds and hedge funds remain cautious, but favorable seasonality, buyback activity, and renewed interest in AI could drive a surprise upside. Meanwhile, China continues to lose momentum, while Europe shows tentative signs of improvement thanks to German fiscal stimulus and a more dovish ECB. 

Although the most acute phase of instability appears to be behind us, the lack of structural trade agreements and ongoing macro uncertainty call for caution: this is a time for selective investing, avoiding overcrowded trades and focusing on visibility and resilience.