In this episode:  

• The Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq-100 indices have undergone a significant correction, declining by 10% and 15%, respectively. While such movements are not unusual in market history, the speed of the downturn and the weakness of the Magnificent 7 have caught investors off guard. Rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty has increased the probability of a U.S. recession to 40%.
• The global market is showing a clear divergence: while U.S. indices are struggling, the Hang Seng is up 20%, and the DAX has outperformed the Nasdaq by 26%. Capital inflows into Europe have been significant in the early weeks of the year, driven by the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the search for better economic prospects outside the United States.
• Three key events could shape markets in the coming months: the escalation of trade tensions with Trump’s tariff expansion, Germany’s tax reform, which could unlock €900 billion in investments, and efforts to redefine geopolitical balances in Ukraine. Additionally, investors are closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its interest rate decisions.

Overall, the global market is experiencing a phase of high volatility and geographical rebalancing. While Europe and China are attracting new investments, uncertainties surrounding U.S. policies and macroeconomic risks call for a cautious and selective approach to seize the best opportunities.