In this episode:

• The equity market rally, driven by forced repositioning and buyback programs, clashes with technical and fundamental indicators that signal the exhaustion of the risk-on phase. These include a negative risk premium on the S&P 500, rising bond yields, and the gradual disengagement of U.S. investors—also penalized by exchange rate effects.
• Geopolitical tensions, reignited by Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, heighten the risk of escalation in the Middle East. Meanwhile, U.S.-China relations remain strained despite timid signs of dialogue, with sharply increasing tariffs having clear repercussions on trade, inflation, and internal U.S. stability.
• The momentum in technology sectors linked to Artificial Intelligence supports certain segments of the U.S. market, but the structural fragility of the current equilibrium—along with the less tech-oriented composition of European indices—limits the rally’s scope and accentuates regional divergences.

In this scenario, dominated by geopolitical uncertainty, internal pressures, and complex economic transitions, the market shows increasing vulnerability beneath an appearance of stability. In times like these, adopting a prudent approach becomes essential—carefully diversifying and focusing on quality and medium- to long-term resilience in order to navigate volatility and paradigm shifts.