In this episode:

• Equity markets have surprised with their resilience, with the S&P 500 up nearly 30% from the April lows, driven by U.S. dominance in the Tech and AI sectors, which have offset narrow market breadth and elevated multiples. In contrast, oil and the dollar have delivered negative performances, with the latter down 11%—its worst half-year in 40 years.
• Macroeconomic dynamics are beginning to show mixed signals, with downward revisions to U.S. GDP, worsening consumer confidence, rising jobless claims, and a contracting housing market. Nevertheless, the Atlanta Fed still estimates +3.4% growth for Q2, and markets are pricing in up to three rate cuts by year-end.
• The geopolitical and fiscal landscape remains in focus, with the stabilizing effect of the unofficial ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, renewed defense spending commitments at the NATO summit, and Trump’s push for the “Big Beautiful Bill.” Meanwhile in Europe, Germany has launched an investment plan that will push its deficit toward 4%, while France faces political instability, impacting spreads and equity markets.

We’ve entered the second half of 2025 with seemingly strong markets, yet underpinned by a fragile narrative. So far, resilience has been remarkable, but it's built on high expectations of fiscal stimulus and rate cuts, while macro signals are starting to soften. The balance is precarious. Investor positioning is more aggressive than at the April bottom, yet still far from euphoric levels. The trajectory of the coming months will depend on the strength of the real economy and central bank actions: any data point on inflation, employment, or consumption could become a volatility trigger. In this environment, risk management returns to the forefront, as the current narrative—driven by tech, stimulus, and contained geopolitics—may not hold if the macro picture deteriorates.