In this episode:
- Financial markets are searching for a new balance after one of the most volatile periods in recent decades. U.S. indices have dropped over 20% from their yearly highs before a partial rebound, while the Dollar Index has hit a three-year low and gold has surged nearly 30% year-to-date, confirming its role as a safe haven asset.
- Tariff tensions are fueling global uncertainty: the U.S. strategy, seen as controversial and disorganized, has triggered instability and strong reactions from China, Canada, and other trade partners. The risk is a steered global economic slowdown, with potential recessionary effects and a loss of credibility for the United States.
- The risk of a global recession is rising, now estimated around 60%, with early signs evident in surveys and declining imports. Central banks are responding in diverging ways: the ECB is cutting rates, while the Fed remains cautious amid political pressures and a lack of clear data.
In this environment dominated by geopolitical instability, high volatility, and mixed economic signals, selectivity and caution remain the most sensible strategies—while awaiting more concrete data and market stabilization.
