Andy's elaborate NFL betting model, designed to win a family football pool, always loses to his aunt who watches three games a year. This perfectly illustrates the over-optimization trap that plagues everything from fantasy football to financial planning.
Adam and Andy explore why the pursuit of perfection in long-term planning often backfires, from clients demanding 12.3% returns to the fatigue that comes with trying to control every variable. Plus, they break down the Warren Buffett often-repeated market indicator that has investors spooked at its current number - 215%, and explain why four major changes since 2001 might make this “best measure” obsolete.
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