We published the global chapter of the ISA Outlook 2024 on November 14, 2023, just before euphoria about a potential ‘V’-shaped property market turnaround emerged. Interest rates fell quickly as financial markets priced in several US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in 2024. For a time, it looked as though our prediction that it would take a little longer for markets to digest a renewed spike in rates would not age well.

In this Mid-Year Update, however, we look back to find an outlook with an uncanny resemblance to that of six months ago. This is not because nothing has changed, but because the mood has gone full circle. The landscape remains characterized by interest rate volatility, soft fundamentals in some markets, and gaping quality divides, but also by pockets of considerable strength. Another factor that has not changed is that financial conditions (i.e., interest rates) remain the dominant driver of the market, and that political and geopolitical uncertainties are in focus in many countries.

Contributors:

Brian Klinksiek

Global Head of Research and Strategy

Eduardo Gorab

Head of Global Portfolio Research and Strategy