A reader waking up from a quarter-long slumber on April 1, 2025 would be forgiven for confusing the headlines for an April Fools’ Day prank. They would scan the news and see stories about:

• large tariffs alternately announced, rescinded, delayed and reintroduced at a breakneck pace (see LaSalle Macro Quarterly, or LMQ, p. 4);
• US equities in correction territory as ex-US markets, including even China’s, outperform (LMQ p. 25); 
• increasing calls that the risk of a US recession is rising (LMQ p. 20); and 
• substantial upward revisions in forecasts of long-term European GDP growth (LMQ p. 21). 

Each of these is at least partly (and in some cases completely) contrary to expectations from the beginning of this year. But the quick reversal in the economic narrative is no April 1st joke. The post-election consensus of a supercharged US economy pulling ahead of the rest of the world has clearly been challenged, if not upended. 

In this period of elevated policy uncertainty, real estate investors should focus on what they can and should do amidst all the noise. At the risk of stating the obvious, we think it helps to take a step back and break down the analysis into three basic steps of incorporating news flow into investment strategy — the what, the so what, and action steps. But as we will discuss, the first two are characterized by so much uncertainty that it is also helpful to start from the end and work backwards, asking: What can investors do to improve their chances of successfully navigating this environment regardless of what happens?

Contributors:

Brian Klinksiek

Global Head of Research and Strategy

Petra Blazkova

Managing Director, Research and Strategy