Japan’s economic landscape took another turn this October, as the country reported increased exports and imports for September despite a new wave of U.S. tariffs that have sharply impacted trade with the United States. According to the Korea JoongAng Daily, Japan’s overall exports grew by 4.2 percent last month, driven by robust shipments to Asia—especially China, where exports jumped 5.8 percent year-on-year. But the story isn’t nearly so bright for Japan’s U.S. trade: exports to America fell 13.3 percent, marking the sixth straight monthly decline, with auto shipments—the backbone of Japan’s industrial economy—plunging 24.2 percent. The key reason? U.S. President Donald Trump’s 15 percent tariff on Japanese goods, a so-called “reciprocal” rate that applies equally to cars and car parts, as reported by both the Korea JoongAng Daily and Morningstar.

While the 15 percent rate is significant, it’s worth noting that this is actually a reduction from the 25 percent rate Trump originally proposed earlier this year. Still, the impact is being felt deeply in Japanese manufacturing, with companies facing higher costs and a tougher competitive environment. According to Morningstar, Japanese policymakers and the Bank of Japan are closely monitoring how U.S. trade policy is affecting corporate activity, even as the global economic outlook remains sluggish. Analysts warn that exports will likely remain under pressure in the coming months, and domestic demand alone can’t offset the hit from U.S. tariffs.

The timing of this economic jolt is notable. Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, was just confirmed by parliament this week, becoming the country’s first female leader. She took office with promises of higher wages, looser monetary policy, and stepped-up fiscal spending—all moves that could help exporters by weakening the yen. But Takaichi faces a fractured political landscape: her ruling coalition does not have a majority in the Diet, making it harder to push through ambitious reforms or fulfill Japan’s $550 billion investment pledge to the United States, part of a bilateral trade framework agreed in July, as reported by the Korea JoongAng Daily.

All eyes are now on the diplomatic front, as Trump is scheduled to visit Japan later this month—his first trip to Asia since returning to the White House. The visit is seen as a coup for Tokyo, but also a major test for Takaichi. According to Brookings, she will need to reassure regional partners that Japan remains a reliable economic anchor, despite the turbulence caused by U.S. tariffs and China’s own export controls on rare earths. Modern Diplomacy notes that Japan is trying to balance the need for trade harmony with the U.S. while maintaining its autonomy on defense and industrial policy—a tricky act as Trump continues to use tariffs as a tool to realign what he sees as unfair global trade practices.

There’s also a hint of strategy behind the scenes. According to Japan Today, Tokyo may signal further goodwill by adjusting its soybean imports—favoring U.S. producers over Brazilian ones—a move that could help stabilize the bilateral relationship just in time for Trump’s visit.

For now, the Japanese economy is showing resilience, but the U.S. tariffs are a clear headwind, especially for automakers and other manufacturers reliant on the American market. The coming weeks—and the meetings between Takaichi and Trump—will set the tone for whether tensions ease or escalate further.

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