We start with a reflection on the results in Tuesday’s elections, and how they relate to polls that indicate Joe Biden is not just unpopular, but actually trailing Donald Trump in key swing states. What can and can’t we take away from such polling, one year out from the presidential election?

We then dive deep into a very different kind of polling and survey data: the 2023 American Values Survey – arguably the most in-depth attempt to capture the values, ideas, and attitudes that shape American society and politics. What do American think of democracy, political violence, authoritarianism, and all the many issues – from abortion and history education to trans rights and QAnon – that define the political conflict? On the basis of this major survey, we try to take the temperature on where things currently stand in America. The results is… mostly not very encouraging.

Show notes:

The complete 2023 American Values Survey can be found here: https://www.prri.org/research/threats-to-american-democracy-ahead-of-an-unprecedented-presidential-election/

“What Do Americans Think About the Health of Our Democracy and the Upcoming Presidential Election?” Panel discussion on the findings of the 2023 American Values Survey, with Lily Mason and others: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbeuG-lGiyU

“Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds,” New York Times, November 5, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html

Jeff Sharlet, The Undertow: Scenes From a Slow Civil War, W.W. Norton & Company 2023 https://wwnorton.com/books/9781324006497