The economic dynamics and political landscape in the context of Africa’s Francophone markets for the 2024 fiscal year paint a complex picture.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remains the largest intra-African trading nation; its share of total African trade increased by 35.7% from $12.19 bn in 2021 to $16.53 bn in 2022. This is largely a result of government commitments to regional integration and strengthening cooperation across the continent. Cote d’Ivoire also stands out as a critical contributor to intra-African trade, with the country’s short and medium-term economic outlook remaining positive, albeit slightly below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Among the major Francophone markets, Morocco is expected to enjoy one of the strongest rates of growth acceleration following a sharp slowdown caused by drought, rising energy prices and growth deceleration in the EU, its main trading partner. Morocco’s GDP is forecast to expand by more than 3.1% this year, up significantly from the 0.8% recorded in 2022.

Still, the quality of growth and its sustainability in the future remains a matter of concern. Sub-Saharan Africa has witnessed an increased incidence of attempts to destabilize governments by unconstitutional or violent means in recent years. Coups, violent extremism, riots, and social unrest have become more commonplace. Ongoing conflicts, contested elections, and economic challenges have caused instability in countries like Chad and Burkina Faso. The upcoming presidential election scheduled for the DRC on December 20th 2023 will be a flashpoint for instability.

While there are pockets of economic resilience, the region faces notable challenges related to political stability and the long-term sustainability of economic growth. Addressing these challenges will be crucial for fostering a more stable and prosperous future in Africa’s Francophone markets.