If you caught Part 1 last week, you’ll know the supply chain picture. This week in Part 2 we test the coalition and Defence side of the ledger.

How exposed is Australia if the Indo-Pacific turns hot? In this episode we map the real stress-points: crowded sea and air lines of communication through the South China Sea and archipelago; a thin domestic refining base that lifts our reliance on imported fuel via Singapore; and non-kinetic attacks that can freeze pumps, power and comms without a shot fired. We also examine the national-will question—can government and public support hold when petrol runs short and utility bills spike?

From supply chain security to force posture, the discussion is blunt. The United States sees conflict risk as nearer than most Australians do. That gap matters for planning. We unpack what Australia can contribute in a coalition beyond high-end combat, how AUKUS intersects with near-term readiness, and why mixed signals to allies complicate access to scarce Virginia-class production. At home, Defence faces recruitment and retention headwinds, capability nearing end-of-life, and programs crowded out by submarine funding. Mobilisation would need to reach beyond current ADF strength—something we haven’t done since the 1940s.

Strategic takeaways: identify and protect the few refuelling and import nodes that keep the economy moving; pre-plan rerouting options for SLOCs/ALOCs; stockpile critical inputs; and align messaging so industry, states and the Commonwealth move in step. In the Pacific, leaders should read intent behind infrastructure “gifts” and price the future call-ins. Commodity dependence cuts both ways—iron ore flows shape leverage—but planning on leverage is not a plan for resilience.

If you lead in defence, energy or logistics, this is a working brief on what to do now: set posture, harden nodes, and rally national will before the whistle blows. 

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