Recorded 10 May 2022

Beyond its failure to understand Ukraine’s possible response to an invasion – the Russian military’s inability to conduct combined operations has come as a shock to most. The pivot to the east, the focus on a smaller object, a new commander, and shorter supply lines suggest Russia’s can make more progress in this next phase. But now most analysts are even questioning that. Progress is likely to be slow and extremely bloody. But the Kremlin may be just fine with that.