The markets have been through a lot of volatility but the light is clearly visible at the end of the tunnel. Do you see what I see? Lets discuss

The sell off in Indian equities has been joined by global equities. The US market is late in the business cycle where it often slips into a recession. The yield curve is steepening causing equities to decline. Bond yields are rising along with the dollar. Not the ideal mix of Macros for a bull market. The bear is thumping the table.

Nifty has broken out ahead of RBIs monetary policy setting meeting on Friday. The mood is of enthusiasm around potential rate cuts as the economy and earnings slow down in India. Will one rate cut really solve the problem though needs to be seen

State elections in India are generating hopes of rally. But earnings have disappointed big time. Can the RBI save the day with rate cuts? Will Donald Trump's trade wars overwhelm all markets? Lots of questions.

Nifty continues to fall the most in global markets. This week the US market which was rising after Donald Trump's election also gave up all the gains. Now rising bond yields and a rising dollar haunt the market. The coming week will set the tone for how markets unfold over the coming twelve months.

The first significant correction in Nifty since March 2023. The stock market is getting oversold in the short term. US elections are adding to the uncertainty. How should we position ourselves?

Nifty made a new all time high this week. The Indian stock market is struggling with the idea that it is overbought or Overvalued. On the other hand, liquidity remains strong and demand has exceeded new supply. Understand this delicate balance. The interest rate cycle is show a trend reversal.

A lot of fear exists around investing in banking stocks. The fear may have been created by the narrative around savings going into bank deposits. The solution offered was higher taxes. On the other hand interest rates are about to start going lower. How does all this add up for the stock market?

The Growing liquidity at a global level and with equity mutual funds in India will continue to fuel a rally in the Indian stock market. The Reflation trade 2.0 refers to wave 3 of the commodity Cycle kicking off where Gold is leading the way Copper has bottomed out and a slow and steady rise in oil will follow falling inflation. This inversion is important to understand.

From the yen carry trade to the risk of recession the markets are back to discounting lower interest rates and a soft landing. Indian stock market has remained subdued due to the resurgence of the Adani scandal. These negatives should be discounted and we should join global stocks higher soon because sentiment is too bearish

The crash in stock markets around the world is probably over. The yen carry trade unwind has capitulated and many markets are oversold. An outright recession is unlikely in the US. Interest rates are on a path lower worldwide that will stimulate growth and drive markets higher again. The dollar index is bearish and a weak dollar is bullish for Emerging market stocks and Bonds.

What factors are giving me confidence that this bull market is not over?

Sometimes people ask me, Rohit, are you sure as if to check if I am very bullish or just bullish or very bearish or just a little. The problem in my model is that I give equal weight to every trade. Equal position size for each stock and so on. So, in my communication, I am extremely bearish when bearish and extremely bullish when bullish. Stupid, right? Yes, for other people, it's nonsense, and sometimes people may consider me mad and dangerous. However, my model gives me the confidence to take action in that direction because that is how I create conviction. If you are not convinced about being bullish or bearish, how are you going to take the required actions? A lot of people struggle with action. Staying long despite losing money is common. But making it actionable requires conviction that something has changed. A strong opinion helps in decision-making, which is how it works for me. Writing about it every day is a commitment that I have made with Indiacharts Insiders that helps in the process of doing the work needed to change. You may not like it, and from the outside, it looks like I am a madman, but from the inside, it results in a decision-making process. Welcome to behavioural finance.

The VIX has seen the biggest decline ahead of a National Election in recent history. Markets have rallied in anticipation of a major win by the existing power at the centre. With so much going on in global markets, from macro to geopolitics, what should we expect from the stock market?

The Mania in the Indian stock market is real and visible. Investors should be aware of what type of market they are participating in and adjust risk accordingly. I continue to wait to see the air come out of this bubble and I think it is already deflating.

The mad frenzy for the Indian stock market now spreads from retail investors to college students and international investors. The flow of funds creates the best of fundamentals and the highest valuations in a long time. This brings risks to long-term returns that are not being considered. The frenzy may be creating a bubble that requires a one-time valuation correction.

It is easier said than done to ignore every crisis, but we have to weigh the odds and manage risk along the way. This is a game of liquidity that the FED started and every time it appears like the end game is here something changes.

After a nice rally from an oversold condition, it is time to think if Nifty is hitting a top and if world markets are done with expecting a rate-cutting cycle without an economic slowdown. How will markets respond to the opposing forces of inflation and deflation.

The stock market is starting to pay attention to bond yields and currency markets. The risk of a slowdown in economic activity due to high-interest rates is real. It also impacts valuations. How to navigate these markets? Listen to Rohit Srivastava

Bear Market Or Correction For Nifty by Rohit Srivastava