The non-farm employment change published at 209K. This was lower than the 224K expected and lower than the last print at 306K. These are signs of cooling down, but the job market remains overall strong. The Fed minutes were released last Wednesday but did not give us any new information and a 25-bps hike is still likely at the Fed’s next meeting. This week UK jobs data showed high average earnings, which will be a concern to the Bank of England. Later in the week we get US inflation data and Q2 earnings is set to kick off with the big banks’ earnings and Delta airlines. We also see central bank releases from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada.

At the ECB’s symposium in Sintra, Portugal, Fed Chair Powell was hawkish, looking to align markets with the latest dot-plot projection of another two interest rate hikes for this year. US final GDP printed significantly higher than preliminary indications. Headline PCE declined but the core number was sticky. This week, the US celebrates its Independence Day holiday, with the first two days having light liquidity. Wednesday sees the FOMC minutes released, and Friday has the US non-farm employment change scheduled.

Last week, Fed Chair Powell testified on Capitol Hill with a hawkish testimony, but it was the UK inflation print and BoE’s 50bps hike that got the markets attention. This week is the ECB Sintra Forum with Wednesday scheduling a key panel discussion. Inflation prints out of the US, Canda, Australia, and Eurozone will be keenly followed, with final GDP numbers out of the US and UK towards the end of the week.

China CPI and PPI disappointed last week. This week US CPI will be released on Tuesday and the Fed statement is scheduled for Wednesday. The market is pricing in a pause but given the RBA and BoC surprise hikes last week, it is going to be close. Thursday has the ECB expected to hike by 25 bps and Friday will see the BoJ Policy Rate announcement. Tune in to this week’s podcast as our analysts discuss these stories.

Last Friday’s NFP surprised to the upside printing at 339K – 193K was expected. Fed speakers talk about a skip in rate hikes and markets have repriced around this. Saudi Arabia announced a 1 million barrels/day cut for the month of July with an option to extend. The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 25-bps hike but Bank of Canada is still expected to hold. On Friday we get another measure of Chinese demand as it releases its CPI. These plus more in this week’s podcast.

Last week saw inflation coming in ahead of expectations. This has led to markets repricing the path of Fed hikes. US GDP came in better that expected but German GDP reflects technical recession. After a 90-minute call on Saturday, there is a debt ceiling deal which needs to be ratified by both Houses. Non-Farm Payrolls will be released this Friday, providing the next clue for rates. Listen in for these stories and more.

On Friday, during a panel discussion, Fed Chair Powell suggested that rates may not climb as much as expected due to credit tightening. Other Fed speakers suggest that FOMC members are developing diverging views. China data hints at a slowing momentum in recovery and EU CPI is still too high. This week sees two more inflation data points – core PCE on Friday and UK inflation on Wednesday. Wednesday will also see the release of the FOMC minutes. Listen to FXCM Market Talk for these stories and more.

Last week, US headline inflation came in under 5% for the first time in two years. Core inflation was 5.5% y/y and is still looking sticky. Chinese CPI was a disappointing 0.1% y/y and Chinese factory-gate inflate declined 3.6% y/y. We also saw the BoE raise rates by 25 bps to 4.50%. This week will see a host of Fed speakers with Fed Chair Powell participating in a panel discussion on Friday. Chinese and US retail sales and industrial production will be released on Tuesday and Euro final inflation y/y numbers will print on Wednesday. Join our discussion for these topics and more.

The NFP showed higher average hourly earnings and a lower unemployment rate than expected. The FOMC statement suggests a pause, the RBA delivered a surprise rate hike and the ECB increased rates by a smaller increment. This week we get CPI data on Wednesday and the BoE is expected to increase its official bank rate by 25bps. Disney is set to release results this week and Friday delivers UK GDP and industrial production.

UK headline CPI came in above 10%; forecasts were for a single digit print. EUR CPI also suggest sticky elements to inflation. ECB and Fed official’s commentary were hawkish in nature. The job market is still tight but initial unemployment claims have started to tick up.  Markets will be looking at US GDP and core PCE for direction. This week includes Government Ueda’s first BoJ meeting and it is a big week for tech results with Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft reporting.

Last week’s FOMC minutes indicate a small recession near year end. Headline CPI declined but core inched up slightly. University of Michigan Inflation Expectations came in higher than previous. China’s GDP beat forecast and UK inflation expected to decrease into single digits. Other regions reporting CPI include Canada, EU, and Japan. Friday sees flash PMIs reported. Banks kicked off Q1 earnings last week with Netflix and Tesla to release this week.

The non-farm employment change shows that the labour market is slowing but still resilient. This week will see CPI and retail sales released. Tightening seems to be making an impact. FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday with Australian employment data and UK GDP and industrial production out on Thursday. Q1 earning seasons is set to kick off this week with airlines and banks.

As PCE shows signs of moderation, OPEC+ announces supply cut of more than 1m barrels per day from May. FXCM senior market specialists, Russell Shor and Nikos Tzabouras discuss its potential impact on inflation. This Friday sees the NFP release and the RBA and RBNZ are due to announce expected rate hikes on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.  This week also has PMI releases. Please join us for the conversation.

Join FXCM market specialists, Russell and Nikos as they discuss the current crisis in confidence surrounding the banking sector. In addition, the ECB has raised rates by 50bps and now all eyes turn to the Fed. However, it is uncertain that they will raise rates given the instability in the banking sector. This week also sees the BoE rate announcement.

Chair Powell’s testimony in front of the Senate and House was hawkish and aggressive. Higher for longer and faster were introduced. The market briefly priced in a possible 50bps hike for March. However, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, lower wage inflation and the uptick in the unemployment rate has the market rethinking this. Moreover, tomorrow sees inflation data – the next piece in the puzzle. Tune in to listen to FXCM market specialists, Russell Shor and Nikos Tzabouras.

FXCM senior market specialist, Russ and Nik, discuss several key events for the week. Fed Chair Powell will testify in front of the Senate (Tues) and House (Wed). The market will be eager to hear any hints on rate hikes or the terminal rate. This Friday the jobs data for February will be released. Last data point was a big surprise higher and the market will look here in anticipation. The RBA is expected to hike by 25bps with the BoC is on hold. Please listen in on these and more.

Join FXCM senior market specialists, Russ and Nik, as they discuss the themes driving the markets for this week. In this podcast, the two analysts discuss the Fed minutes that were released last week and how they differed from Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. Core PCE also came in ahead of expectations, with inflation being a primary driver. Join the discussion for these and more.

Last week’s CPI and PPI release show a stickiness to inflation. The market seems to be coming around to the Fed’s view whilst several Fed officials talk up interest rates. This week the Fed’s minutes will be released on Wednesday and Friday sees the all-important core PCE release. Join FXCM senior market specialists Russ and Nik as they discuss these and more.

Following the blowout jobs report, markets are largely data driven. This week sees a slew of important data. Out of the US inflation, retail sales and industrial production. On the UK front, the calendar has jobs, CPI and retail sales and the EU will see GDP on Tuesday. Diplomatic relations between the US and China are deteriorating rapidly following last week’s shooting down by the US of a Chinese balloon as well as three other objects over the weekend. Market specialists, Russ and Nik, discuss these and more.

Last Week:

· NFP 517K vs 190K forecast.

· Unemployment 3.5%-->3.4%

· Wage data came in as forecast at 0.3% m/m.

· PMI non-manufacturing data is strongly back above 50.

· Fed raises rated by 25bps on Wed.

· Hawkish but more relaxed.

· Powell talked about the disinflation process.

· Did not validate December projections.

· Offered little push back against the market.

· Opened the door to potential pivot (in case of overshoot).

· Following NFP, terminal rate is pushed back one month, and markets sees 5.25%.

· Employment coming back into focus: will unemployment increase.

· ECB: raised by 50bps and committed to another 50bps in March in statement.

· Intentions are to hike passed March.

· President Lagarde acknowledged more balanced risks to inflation outlook.

· ECB likely more hawkish than Fed.

· BoE: No surprises but unclear guidance.

· Softened communication but didn’t signal pause.

· Comment – may be at the turning point but not necessarily done.

This week:

· Powell: moderated discussion Economic Club of Washington (Tuesday).

· RBA cash rate:  25bps after recent inflation surprise?

· Williams (NY Fed president) interview with Nick Timiraos on Wed.

· UK GDP on Fri.

· China/US relations are strained after US shoots down “spy” balloon.

· Tech Earnings: BP, Disney. Last week Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple.