FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

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FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

Ebury FX Talk

116 episodes

1 week ago

The US government shutdown continues to drag on like a traffic jam in New York at rush hour, with no apparent ending in sight. Macroeconomic reports out of the US have been subsequently scarcer than Wi-Fi in the desert, but could this lack of data impact the tone of Fed Chair Powell’s communications at this week’s FOMC meeting? And what might it mean for the path of US rates in 2026? In the meantime, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will be meeting on Thursday in an attempt to has...

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The US government shutdown continues to drag on like a traffic jam in New York at rush hour, with no apparent ending in sight. Macroeconomic reports out of the US have been subsequently scarcer than Wi-Fi in the desert, but could this lack of data impact the tone of Fed Chair Powell’s communications at this week’s FOMC meeting? And what might it mean for the path of US rates in 2026? In the meantime, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will be meeting on Thursday in an attempt to has...

Show more...

Episodes (20/116)

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

US-China trade war nears hour of reckoning

The US government shutdown continues to drag on like a traffic jam in New York at rush hour, with no apparent ending in sight. Macroeconomic reports out of the US have been subsequently scarcer than Wi-Fi in the desert, but could this lack of data impact the tone of Fed Chair Powell’s communications at this week’s FOMC meeting? And what might it mean for the path of US rates in 2026? In the meantime, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will be meeting on Thursday in an attempt to has...

1 week ago

33 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

Bond markets flag troubles ahead (with special guest Kallum Pickering)

SPECIAL GUEST ALERT. We’re delighted to be joined on today’s episode by Peel Hunt’s Chief Economist Kallum Pickering. Kallum brings with himself well over a decade of experience as an economist in London and is a regular commentator in the financial markets space, having made many appearances down the years on the likes of Bloomberg and CNBC. He also has regular columns in the Telegraph, the Spectator and the Evening Standard. This week, we chat about global bond markets, fiscal policy...

3 weeks ago

52 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

Key data from Europe diverges

Latest business activity PMIs from Europe showed a mixed picture in the Eurozone and brought fresh concerns over the health of the British economy. Does the latter shift the outlook for the BoE? And what do bond investors think about the Federal Reserve’s latest decision? Our analysts also dissect the latest monetary policy decisions in Scandinavia, where both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank joined the Fed in cutting interest rates. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback...

1 month ago

17 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

Trump vs. China: The fallout (with special guest Isabel Ye)

SPECIAL GUEST ALERT. We’re delighted to be joined on this week’s episode by Ebury’s Director of China Initiatives, Isabel Ye Qiu. The unveiling of President Trump’s tariffs has wreaked havoc with supply chains globally, particularly in China. How are businesses reacting? Can China keep its advantage over the rest of the region and how can Ebury assist in the current environment. Isabel tells us all! In markets, the dollar sank following the release of another soft US payrolls report. What do...

2 months ago

27 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

Powell drops a bombshell at Jackson Hole

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish surprise at the annual get together of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last week. Has this effectively guaranteed a September rate cut from the FOMC? And what do fears over Fed independence mean for the US dollar? Our analysts also dissect the latest encouraging business activity PMI figures out of the Euro Area, and break down the implications of last week’s worrisome UK inflation figures for both the pound and Bank of England int...

2 months ago

26 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

EU bags trade deal: A slam dunk or own goal?

The EU has finally reached a trade deal with the US! But is this a bad deal for the European economy? How have markets reacted to the news? And what could this mean for ECB rates? We also discuss another batch of quite remarkable economic figures out of the US - could this delay the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts? And we again scratch our heads and try to figure out what’s going on with the pound, which continues to underperform most of its major peers. We’d like to hear from you! Provid...

3 months ago

25 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

Has the “Sell America” trade run its course?

FX Talk has finally caught up with the times! After nearly five years of hiding behind microphones, honing our radio voices and bringing you audio-only episodes, we’re finally making the leap into the exciting world of YouTube. Brace for some questionable outfit selections, a few bad hair days, and an inevitable stray coffee spill or two. In this week’s episode, we unpack whether the recent “sell America” trade is a thing of the past, attempt to unpack the implications of President Trump’s t...

3 months ago

35 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

Middle East conflict rocks markets: Dollar tumbles as ceasefire struck

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have dominated activity in currency markets in the past fortnight or so. The safe-haven dollar gained across the board as the conflict between Israel and Iran intensified, although news of a US brokered ceasefire has buoyed risk appetite and sent the greenback crashing to its lowest level in three years. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its June policy meeting, with FOMC members appearing divided over the path ahead for p...

4 months ago

19 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

US economy defying the odds, but is it recession proof?

The dollar has continued to lose ground against most major and emerging market currencies in the past few weeks. A US court ruling that deemed White House tariffs to be illegal has been delayed pending an appeal. Trade negotiations are ongoing, although these have failed to yield much progress thus far. Investors are also fearful that Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax bill could lead to a sharp increase in US debt in the next few years. Thus far, however, the world’s largest economy is hold...

5 months ago

22 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

US and China strike trade accord: what it means for markets

US tariff headlines continue to dominate the narrative in financial markets. Fears over a US recession triggered a sharp sell-off in US equities, Treasuries and the dollar last month. Yet, signs of progress in trade negotiations, particularly following the news of a US-China trade deal, have lifted optimism, and raised hopes that the economic impact of the tariffs will be less significant than initially anticipated. Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates by another 25 basis ...

6 months ago

20 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

The dollar’s wild ride, and is a US recession inevitable in 2025?

The US dollar collapsed to its lowest level in three years this week, with investors still reeling from the unveiling of (and subsequent delay to) President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Yet, with Trump and his top team softening their stance towards China, and the President backtracking on his calls to remove Jerome Powell from his position as chair of the FOMC, has the tide turned for the US currency? We also look ahead to the release of next week’s highly important US GDP report. Is t...

6 months ago

25 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

US dollar tanks as Trump’s dramatic tariff U-turn stuns markets

It’s been a barely believable few days in financial markets since President Trump unveiled the details of his reciprocal tariffs during his so-called “Liberation Day” on 2nd April. Risk assets crashed on the realisation that the tariffs would be significantly more aggressive than anyone had been anticipating. The dramatic 90-day pause to all trade levies (China aside) has triggered a fresh bout of volatility in markets, and some stocks indices posted among their largest one-day rallies this c...

7 months ago

25 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

Germany’s fiscal bazooka: A shot in the arm for the euro?

In this week’s episode of FX Talk, Matt and Roman are joined by our Sao Paulo analyst, Eduardo Moutinho, to discuss the latest headlines in the currency market. The dollar has sold-off sharply against most currencies in recent weeks as investors fear a slowdown in US growth. Yet, with the Federal Reserve sticking to its cautious approach to cuts, is this move lower in the greenback perhaps overdone? Meanwhile, the euro has surged above the $1.09 level this month, buoyed by the news of a mass...

7 months ago

22 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

US dollar tanks: Are markets calling Trump’s tariff bluff?

President Trump has followed through with plans to slap massive 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, while also unveiling fresh 10% duties on China. The US dollar would ordinarily be trading higher under such circumstances, but the greenback has sold-off sharply across the board. What is fuelling the move? And how concerning is the recent deterioration in US economic news? Meanwhile, last week’s Ukraine discussions in the White House descended into a farce. European currencies are ...

8 months ago

17 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

What UK inflation spike means for Bank of England rates

The outlook for UK interest rates has been clouded once again this week by strong data on the labour market and inflation. The main inflation rate jumped to a 10-month high in January, while the core rate is now printing at nearly double the BoE’s 2% target. Could this herald a slower pace of rate reductions ahead? Or will the committee prioritise supporting Britain’s admittedly fragile growth outlook? Elsewhere, European currencies have been buoyed by hopes of a peace deal between Russia an...

8 months ago

22 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

Trump’s tariffs trigger frantic currency trading

Without question, the only real talking point on investors' lips at present is the protectionist utterings emanating from the recently anointed Trump administration. Risk currencies sold-off sharply after Trump unveiled savage tariffs aimed at Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend, although these moves have since reversed after a number of the trade restrictions were delayed at the eleventh hour. But, what do our analysts make of the headlines? Is Trump serious? Or are these tariff...

9 months ago

28 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

100th Episode Special: A trip down memory lane, and tips for novice investors

Ton-up! FX Talk has reached a century of episodes! In this special podcast recording, we take a trip down memory lane and discuss some of the most memorable moments from our time covering financial markets. From the panic caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers during the Global Financial Crisis, to the Brexit vote, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine. Our analysts also shed some light on how they began following markets, while discussing s...

9 months ago

32 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

2025 Global Market Outlook: Trumponomics 2.0 and beyond

2025 looks set to be another eventful year in financial markets. Focus among market participants will be largely on news out of the incoming Trump administration, particularly details surrounding the Republicans tariff proposals. The world’s major central banks will continue to lower interest rates, as inflation globally gradually returns back to target levels, while growing downside risks to growth could trigger a mild global slowdown.But, what do our analysts see as the main focal point for...

10 months ago

29 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

2024 in FX: A Year in Review

2024 has been another highly eventful year in financial markets. Political developments have dominated the headlines following the collapse of governments in Germany and France, and election wins for Donald Trump and Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Central banks globally have continued to lower policy rates and we’ve seen another outperformance in the US economy relative to its developed peers. This has boosted the dollar to near the summit of the year-to-date FX performance tracker. Our ...

10 months ago

20 minutes

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

French political turmoil and its impact on ECB policy

The main theme in currency markets since the US election has continued to be broad dollar strength. The greenback has rallied against most major and emerging market currencies in the past month, as investors brace for higher US inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve and hefty tariffs under the second Trump administration. The big underperformer in that time has been the euro, which continues to languish near two-year lows. Renewed political uncertainty in France further clouds the outloo...

11 months ago

18 minutes