#9 - Spatial Scenarios With Real‐Time Spatial Delphi and Asymptotic Consensus Analysis: An Application to Ten European Coastal Cities

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Futures Research Unpacked

Wensupu Yang

23 episodes

6 days ago

Explore thought-provoking research in futures studies, strategic foresight, and related fields. In each episode, we break down one paper in a way that’s easy to follow but still rich in ideas. Perfect for your commute, and great for deciding whether a paper deserves a deeper read. Selections are guided by my personal curiosity rather than strict criteria. If you’ve authored a paper and would like it featured, feel free to reach out. Audio is AI-generated using Google’s NotebookLM. Please refer to the original sources for validation before using the content for serious or scholarly purposes.

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#9 - Spatial Scenarios With Real‐Time Spatial Delphi and Asymptotic Consensus Analysis: An Application to Ten European Coastal Cities

Futures Research Unpacked

19 minutes 14 seconds

4 months ago

#9 - Spatial Scenarios With Real‐Time Spatial Delphi and Asymptotic Consensus Analysis: An Application to Ten European Coastal Cities

How are European coastal cities preparing for the devastating impacts of climate change by 2050?

In this episode, we delve into a groundbreaking study that uses the Real-Time Spatial Delphi (RTSD) method and a novel web-based platform, the Real-Time Geo-Spatial Consensus System (RT-GSCS), to map out future climate scenarios. Learn how 167 experts from across Europe are pinpointing areas most at risk from coastal erosion, floods, and extreme temperatures. We'll uncover the innovative concept of Asymptotic Theoretical Consensus (ATC), which helps understand the dynamics, duration, and stability of expert agreement, often reaching consensus much faster than traditional methods.

Discover how these Delphi-based spatial scenarios (DBSS) provide crucial, actionable insights for policymakers and local authorities to formulate effective climate adaptation strategies and prevent 'dystopian scenarios'.

Ref:

Calleo, Y., Pilla, F., & Di Zio, S. (2025). Spatial Scenarios With Real‐Time Spatial Delphi and Asymptotic Consensus Analysis: An Application to Ten European Coastal Cities. FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE, 7(2), e70013. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70013