The Industrial Gas Users Association of Southern Africa (IGUA-SA) has welcomed the focus given to gas in the Integrated Resource Plan 2025 (IRP 2025), but executive officer Jaco Human says critical supply-side questions will still have to be answered if the impending gas supply cliff is to be averted.
Describing as a significant shift the plan's target of raising the share of gas in the electricity generation mix to 11% by 2039, or to 16 000 MW from close to zero currently, Human said IGUA-SA wholeheartedly welcomed the "strategic pivot towards gas".
"We have long advocated for recognition of gas's integrated role across our economy. Gas represents the most versatile energy source available to South Africa, offering dispatchable power, industrial feedstock, and a bridge to our decarbonisation goals," Human told Engineering News.
"The IRP 2025 validates this perspective. Our analysis suggests that implementation of the IRP 2025, combined with projected industrial demand, will drive a four- to five-fold increase in South Africa's gas consumption. This transformation presents enormous opportunities for economic growth and energy security."
Nevertheless, Human noted that the supply of gas remained a critical and unresolved gap.
"While IRP 2025 articulates demand for gas, it does not adequately address supply pathways. South Africa is pivoting towards a gas-reliant economy without a clear, implementable strategy for securing that gas."
He said the looming gas cliff represented an imminent economic threat that demanded urgent attention.
"We must prioritise addressing the gas cliff as a matter of national economic security. This requires stacking demand, structuring initial liquefied natural gas (LNG) transactions strategically, and accelerating development of domestic and regional gas resources."
While arguing that the IRP 2025 had charted a destination for the country, Human said that an equally robust supply roadmap was also required and indicated that IGUA-SA looked forward to engaging with government, Eskom, and other stakeholders on developing concrete solutions.
In addition, Human argued that the unfavourable economics of LNG exposure should be limited in the medium- to long-term to protect South Africa's industrial competitiveness and energy affordability.
He, thus, called for action to open the way for the exploration for and development of regional gas sources, including West Coast gas prospects.