Donald Trump’s electoral victory in November 2024 was not only a watershed in American domestic politics, but also signalled a fundamental shift in the post-Cold War international order. Given that Trump’s administration and inner circle is populated with China hawks, there are concerns about how he will conduct his relations with Chinese leaders. Yet, there is a structural explanation for the deterioration of US-China relations in recent years as well, with a distinct possibility that these conditions could lead the US and China towards confrontation and conflict.