In this episode of ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco (Chief Economist at EY and NABE Vice President) and Laura Rosner-Warburton (Senior Economist and Founding Partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives) are joined by special guest Alan Detmeister, Senior Economist and Executive Director at UBS, for a deep dive into the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends and what they reveal about the U.S. economy.

Together, they unpack the recent downside surprises in inflation data, discuss the role of seasonal distortions, and explore whether tariff effects are beginning to take hold—or are still to come. The conversation also spotlights an under-the-radar shift in the BLS's data collection procedures, raising key questions about the reliability of inflation measures moving forward.

With rising geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility, the trio tackles the potential return of stagflationary pressures, what it means for core vs. headline inflation, and how the Federal Reserve might respond in an increasingly complex economic environment.

This episode was recorded on Friday, June 13, 2025.

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🎧📈 Tune in every Monday following the CPI report for a new episode with Greg and Laura!