The initial April 2025 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 41 professional forecasters. The initial survey, covering the outlook for 2025 and 2026, was conducted March 18-25, 2025. In order to capture rapidly changing economic conditions, a flash survey was conducted April 7-9, 2025, and presents the consensus 2025-2026 macroeconomic forecast of 32 professional forecasters out of the 41 initially surveyed. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965,and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,800 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Kathy Bostjancic (chair), Nationwide; Martin Holdrich, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.; Mervin Jebaraj, University of Arkansas; Tendayi Kapfidze, Wells Fargo; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; Brian Lewandowski, University of Colorado; Caitlin Patrick, National Association for Business Economics; Rebecca Rockey, Cushman & Wakefield; and Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. Edited by Kate Anderson. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.

SUMMARY: “NABE panelists lowered their forecasts for economic growth for 2025 and 2026 following the April 2nd tariff announcement,” said NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris, CBE, chief economist, Ford Motor Company. “The Flash Survey calls for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to increase by 1.3% this year, down from 1.9% in the initial April survey. Similarly, the outlook for 2026 economic growth is 1.4%, down from 1.9%.
“In addition, half of the participants place the probability of recession in 2025 between 25% and 49%, while 37% place the odds at 50% or higher. This compares with 8% who placed the odds of recession in 2025 at 50% or higher just prior to the April 2nd tariff announcement.”
“Inflation forecasts for this year were lifted higher, while projections for next year were little changed in the Flash Survey,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist, Nationwide. “Survey respondents now forecast the consumer price index will accelerate to a 3.4% annual rate by the end of 2025, up from the estimated 3.0% annual pace in the initial April survey.
“Similarly, the estimate for the personal consumption expenditure price index was boosted to an annual 3.5% by year-end, up from 2.7% in the initial survey. Panelists did not alter the forecast path for the Federal funds rate in 2025, continuing to call for a 25-basis-point rate cut in Q3 2025 and another 25-bps rate reduction in Q4 2025.”

To download the full report, please visit NABE.com/Surveys.