Consciousness in contemporary or near-future AI systems is becoming a matter of practical concern. To make wise decisions about such systems, it will be important to have a model of their probabilities of consciousness and how those probabilities will change with new advancements.In this talk, Hayley and Derek will delve into an ongoing Rethink Priorities project: a framework for estimating the probability of consciousness in artificial systems. They will explore the critical challenges in evaluating AI consciousness and share the strategic decisions guiding their work.Hayley Clatterbuck is a Senior Researcher on the Worldview Investigations Team at Rethink Priorities and a Visiting Associate Professor of Philosophy at UCLA.Derek Shiller is a researcher on the Worldview Investigations team at Rethink Priorities, where he explores foundational questions ranging from digital consciousness to philanthropic decision-making. He holds a PhD in philosophy from Princeton University and has published work on topics in ethics and the philosophy of mind.