Different approaches to forecasting future trends. This is the first of two episodes on how to think about the way the future might Evolve (question three in our six-question framework). There are two broad approaches depending on how predictable you think the future is. in this episode we assume that you can have a decent guess at how the future should evolve and thus you can try and make a forecast. We cover the general principles (have good data and have a good model) and the various models that you can use (e.g., linear growth, exponential growth, S curve, lifecycle, and disruptive innovation). Charlie illustrates these approaches through an example from his own experience as a strategy analyst.