We unpack why crypto is bleeding now: a U.S. dollar rally and a tightening SOFR‑IORB spread are triggering forced deleveraging and selling from institutional desks. We weigh two opposing cycle views — Benjamin Cowan's time-based fair-value model warning of consolidation versus Arthur Hayes' liquidity-driven thesis that a much larger blow-off top could arrive later — and outline key political and regulatory wildcards, including the Nov 5 Supreme Court tariff hearing and differing moves from Hong Kong and the EU. Practical takeaway: stay defensive as stablecoin flows and smart‑contract risks show where institutions are parking capital now, and decide which “clock” — historical cycle timing or future liquidity expansion — you believe will drive the next major move.Subscribe to our daily Free Crypto Newsletter: https://crypto.report