Maria de Goeij provides a brilliant introduction to reflexive control theory, a Soviet theory of influence. Listen to learn more and appreciate how it can help us better understand today's world, including strategic decision making in hybrid warfare. Reflexive control theory is a theory of influence that was developed in the 1960s, in Soviet Russia. During this lecture Maria will talk about the cybernetic origins of the theory, what we know about reflexive control, and what we do not know about it. She’ll then talk about why this under-researched theory from Soviet times is important to take into account in the todays world and how it can help us think about strategic decision making in hybrid warfare.
Maria works as an analyst for Thomson Reuters Special Services International and is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Changing Character of War Centre. Before joining TRSSI, Maria has worked for several think tanks in the Netherlands, the UK, and Montenegro. In addition to this, she has been working for several organisations as an analyst and advisor, and has considerable experience of all issues relating to hybrid and grey zone warfare.
Throughout her career, Maria specialised in the analysis of military thought and grand strategy, and strategic influence and statecraft. Her specific interest has been focused on improving contextual situational awareness, finding (qualitative and quantitative) patterns in conflict, including patterns of state and non-state actor behaviour, and the development of early warning systems. Together with the foregoing, her academic interests include the modelling of reflexive control theory.
Maria has a BA degree in European Studies, with a specialism in diplomacy, from The Hague University and an MSc degree in Crisis and Security Management from Leiden University.
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Maria de Goeij provides a brilliant introduction to reflexive control theory, a Soviet theory of influence. Listen to learn more and appreciate how it can help us better understand today's world, including strategic decision making in hybrid warfare. Reflexive control theory is a theory of influence that was developed in the 1960s, in Soviet Russia. During this lecture Maria will talk about the cybernetic origins of the theory, what we know about reflexive control, and what we do not know about it. She’ll then talk about why this under-researched theory from Soviet times is important to take into account in the todays world and how it can help us think about strategic decision making in hybrid warfare.
Maria works as an analyst for Thomson Reuters Special Services International and is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Changing Character of War Centre. Before joining TRSSI, Maria has worked for several think tanks in the Netherlands, the UK, and Montenegro. In addition to this, she has been working for several organisations as an analyst and advisor, and has considerable experience of all issues relating to hybrid and grey zone warfare.
Throughout her career, Maria specialised in the analysis of military thought and grand strategy, and strategic influence and statecraft. Her specific interest has been focused on improving contextual situational awareness, finding (qualitative and quantitative) patterns in conflict, including patterns of state and non-state actor behaviour, and the development of early warning systems. Together with the foregoing, her academic interests include the modelling of reflexive control theory.
Maria has a BA degree in European Studies, with a specialism in diplomacy, from The Hague University and an MSc degree in Crisis and Security Management from Leiden University.
The Consequences of Refugee Repatriation for Stayees: A Threat to Stability and Sustainable Development?
Changing Character of War
30 minutes
6 years ago
The Consequences of Refugee Repatriation for Stayees: A Threat to Stability and Sustainable Development?
Using longitudinal data from Burundi collected in 2011 and 2015, this paper explores the consequences of repatriation for stayee households i.e. those who never left the country during the conflict Large-scale refugee repatriation is sometimes considered a threat to stability and sustainable development because of the burden it could impose on receiving communities. Yet the empirical evidence on the impacts of refugee return is limited. Using longitudinal data from Burundi collected in 2011 and 2015, this paper explores the consequences of repatriation for stayee households (i.e. those who never left the country during the conflict). Burundi experienced large-scale repatriation during the 2000s, with the returning refugees unevenly spread across the country. We use geographical features of the communities of origin, including altitude and proximity to the border, for identification purposes. The results suggest that a higher share of returnees in a community is associated with less livestock ownership, the principal form of capital accumulation in the country, and worse subjective economic conditions for stayee households. Additional analysis suggests that refugee return had a negative impact on food security and land access for stayees. The negative impact on food security largely disappears between rounds of the survey. Refugee return had no significant effect on the health outcomes of stayees. The article finishes with a discussion of the implications of the results for policies that aim to support refugee repatriation and long-term sustainable development in post conflict societies.
Dr Carlos Vargas-Silva is Research Director and Associate Professor at COMPAS. He is also the Director of the DPhil in Migration Studies and a member of Kellogg College. Carlos is also co-founder and current Associate Editor of the journal Migration Studies. He was also one of the researchers that developed the Migration Observatory in 2010, and acted as Director of the Observatory in 2014 and 2017.
Changing Character of War
Maria de Goeij provides a brilliant introduction to reflexive control theory, a Soviet theory of influence. Listen to learn more and appreciate how it can help us better understand today's world, including strategic decision making in hybrid warfare. Reflexive control theory is a theory of influence that was developed in the 1960s, in Soviet Russia. During this lecture Maria will talk about the cybernetic origins of the theory, what we know about reflexive control, and what we do not know about it. She’ll then talk about why this under-researched theory from Soviet times is important to take into account in the todays world and how it can help us think about strategic decision making in hybrid warfare.
Maria works as an analyst for Thomson Reuters Special Services International and is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Changing Character of War Centre. Before joining TRSSI, Maria has worked for several think tanks in the Netherlands, the UK, and Montenegro. In addition to this, she has been working for several organisations as an analyst and advisor, and has considerable experience of all issues relating to hybrid and grey zone warfare.
Throughout her career, Maria specialised in the analysis of military thought and grand strategy, and strategic influence and statecraft. Her specific interest has been focused on improving contextual situational awareness, finding (qualitative and quantitative) patterns in conflict, including patterns of state and non-state actor behaviour, and the development of early warning systems. Together with the foregoing, her academic interests include the modelling of reflexive control theory.
Maria has a BA degree in European Studies, with a specialism in diplomacy, from The Hague University and an MSc degree in Crisis and Security Management from Leiden University.
