During Episode 27 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, steps back to examine the macro forces shaping the biopharma landscape. After holding a bearish outlook since 2021, Geoff explains why he's finally shifting his stance and what could signal a true turnaround for biotech.



He unpacks the “big three” market headwinds—regulatory hurdles from the IRA, FTC deal scrutiny, and high interest rates—and outlines how recent shifts, including rate cuts, new FTC leadership, and potential IRA reform, could spark renewed momentum, especially in M&A and rare diseases. Geoff also highlights previously underappreciated risks like HHS cuts and aggressive tariffs, which could stall progress if unresolved.



With a balanced, apolitical lens, this episode offers candid insights into why policy matters for biotech investors, operators, and dealmakers—and what to watch for as 2025 unfolds.



Tune in to understand the key inflection points and why Geoff sees the second half of 2025 as a potential breakout period for the industry.



Full Transcript:



Welcome to Biotalk. My name is Geoff Meyerson, CEO and Co-founder of Locust Walk, and you are listening to Biotalk, our podcast for biotech deal makers. In this episode, I want to zoom out and talk about the bigger picture — what's really driving the biotech market right now.



In almost every meeting the past few months I have been asked my views on the market.  I decided that I am going to share my thoughts publicly. I fancy myself to be a free market limited government champion across all aspects of life. I do not comment politically nor believe it is my job to criticize or promote any politician or party. That said, the macro policies enacted by both parties directly impact the biopharma industry, and I believe it’s important to analyze and comment on areas related to the life science industry. For all other issues, I subscribe to the University of Chicago’s institutional neutrality, and it is my (and Locust Walk’s) policy to not comment publicly.



First a recap of why I was bearish starting fall 2021 when Locust Walk ran a webinar titled “Has Biotech Peaked”. Throughout 2022, 2023, and until September 2024, despite many market analysts predicting a turnaround, I maintained my bearishness because the 3 underlying headwinds that started blowing hadn’t stopped or reversed, namely:



Regulatory headwinds because of the IRA



Transaction headwinds from an openly hostile FTC



Monetary headwinds via high interest rates caused by high inflation



Until these 3 drivers reversed, I didn’t believe the market would improve beyond incremental changes. When in September 2024 the US Federal Reserve dropped rates by 50 bps, the rate tightening cycle had not only stopped but reversed. My changing perspective was independent of the pending election since the largest factor interest rates was starting to shift.



In January 2025, Lina Khan exited the FTC and a new era of antitrust enforcement began. While far from perfect, it has been markedly more pro-business with a much less aggressive effort to block transactions. Locust Walk’s Quarterly Market conditions detailed a 47% uptick in M&A by value and 35% by volume showing signs of life in this market even though I didn’t anticipate any material improvement until 2H25 because it takes time for deals to come to fruition after the changeover in policy. I predicted M&A had the potential to transform the industry this year after years of suppression. I stand by this prediction and for everyone’s sake I hope I’m right.



The IRA pill fix is being discussed and because President Trump has come out in support,