Donald Trump's 2024 win surprised many pundits, but not Benjamin Studebaker, who had assumed the worldwide incumbency crisis in 2024 would ultimately come for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. His newest book, "Legitimacy in Liberal Democracies", builds on his previous work on the chronic crisis of liberal democracy. In ArtiFact 64, Benjamin Studebaker and author/filmmaker Alex Sheremet discuss their reasons for expecting a Trump victory, the question of political polarization, and where liberal democracy goes from here.You can also watch this discussion on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/j1nENjZNwu0 Read Alex Sheremet's essay on why Donald Trump was poised to win: https://www.automachination.com/joy-kamala-harris-lose-2024/ Buy Benjamin Studebaker's "Legitimacy in Liberal Democracies": https://www.amazon.com/Legitimacy-Liberal-Democracies-Benjamin-Studebaker/dp/1399534688/ Get the B Side to this conversation: https://www.patreon.com/automachination B Side Topics: Why Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" failed; pollsters had no courage; modeling presidential elections on fundamentals; the psychology of modeling; how blame is shifted on to the electorate; assessing a very mixed economy; did white collar workers punish Kamala Harris for 2023-24 layoffs; the housing market as independent of inflation metrics; why voters assess incumbents on a purely relative basis; politics of memory; inflation-adjusted median family income has not returned to Trump-era benchmarks; are liberals dropping out of politics after Trump's win; why MSNBC and other outlets are losing subscribers; why the fear narratives failed; the story of 2024 is a racial shift towards the GOP; Benjamin Studebaker on what sort of disagreement nation-states tolerate; the nature of political polarization; how political leadership has ceased to lead; folk legitimation vs. official legitimation; expanding notions of inequality Learn about and contribute to our film, "From There To There: Bruce Ario, the Minneapolis Poet": https://www.gofundme.com/f/new-film-the-minneapolis-poet-bruce-ario Subscribe to the ArtiFact podcast on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3xw2M4D Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3wLpqEV Amazon Music: https://amzn.to/2SVJIxBPodbean: https://bit.ly/3yzLuUoiHeartRadio: https://ihr.fm/3AK942LRead more from the automachination universe: https://automachination.com Read Alex Sheremet’s (archived) essays: https://alexsheremet.com Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/automachination Timestamps 0:00 - Alex Sheremet's new film is out; introducing Benjamin Studebaker and his new book; why we expected Donald Trump to win 4:39 - Benjamin Studebaker on Democrats' headwinds; COVID & inflation; Democrats destroyed their chances years ago 8:13 - Alex: Democrats who sound/act like Kamala Harris NEVER get elected; there are no Liz Cheney/Alberto Gonzalez voters; polling was stable and consistent in favor of Trump 15:52 - sexism & the Kamala Harris campaign; many voters saw Kamala Harris as a weak woman, whereas few voters would dare think of Hillary Clinton as weak; why Kamala Harris was seen as a "DEI candidate" 20:45 - the global anti-incumbent bias in 2024; Mexico's AMLO and Claudia Steinbaum as exceptions to this backlash 25:20 - Trump's racism surrounding Haitian migrants vs. Kamala's racism in using, then ignoring migrants; Kamala's identitarian failures; Democrats are behaving like mob bosses, and voters don't want it 34:22 - Democrats assume voters accept their racial narratives about the GOP; why Democrats dehumanize non-party voters; previewing Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House 36:36 - Benjamin Studebaker's thesis on the legitimation strategies of liberal democracies; the nature of escalating disagreements in embedded democracies; Trump and Obama as the aesthetic trappings of change; Studebaker's conception of a legitimation hydra in deep pluralism 48:25 - Kamala Harris taps the legitimation hydra with her contradictory promises;