When an AI system produces an eloquent paragraph or a sharp forecast, it feels intelligent. But that’s an illusion born of fluent output. The model isn’t thinking; it’s statistically imitating the structure of thought. It doesn’t know truth, only probability. If you ask it for a credit summary, it predicts which sequence of words most often follows “credit summary” in its training data. Its strength is correlation, not comprehension. Treating correlation as comprehension is the first cognitiv...
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When an AI system produces an eloquent paragraph or a sharp forecast, it feels intelligent. But that’s an illusion born of fluent output. The model isn’t thinking; it’s statistically imitating the structure of thought. It doesn’t know truth, only probability. If you ask it for a credit summary, it predicts which sequence of words most often follows “credit summary” in its training data. Its strength is correlation, not comprehension. Treating correlation as comprehension is the first cognitiv...
The Causal Chain of Rwanda’s Irembo Digital Platform
Acalytica Lounge
24 minutes
5 months ago
The Causal Chain of Rwanda’s Irembo Digital Platform
Rwanda’s Irembo platform stands as a model for how digital public infrastructure (DPI) can transform service delivery, foster trust in government, and enable data-driven governance. By mapping its causal structure using a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), we uncover how targeted policy actions cascade into far-reaching outcomes that shape both citizen experience and national development. This article presents that causal chain and draws insights for policymakers, donors, and DPI architects. sou...
Acalytica Lounge
When an AI system produces an eloquent paragraph or a sharp forecast, it feels intelligent. But that’s an illusion born of fluent output. The model isn’t thinking; it’s statistically imitating the structure of thought. It doesn’t know truth, only probability. If you ask it for a credit summary, it predicts which sequence of words most often follows “credit summary” in its training data. Its strength is correlation, not comprehension. Treating correlation as comprehension is the first cognitiv...
