Nepal today is not just a country of Everest and spiritual practices, but a complex economic organism at a critical crossroads. It has demonstrated remarkable resilience to external shocks, including recent natural disasters, but its future depends on its ability to overcome deep structural contradictions. International institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecast moderate but stable growth in the coming years. Projections for fiscal years 2025-2027 range from 4.2% to 5.4%.1This growth is expected to be fueled by a recovery in tourism, increased hydropower production and a steady inflow of remittances from migrant workers – the three traditional pillars of the Nepalese economy.

However, these positive signals are confronted with a harsh reality. The government’s ambitious 16th National Development Plan aims to achieve average annual economic growth of 7.3%, achieve middle-income status by 2030, and significantly reduce poverty. These goals are continually undermined by systemic problems that are not reflected in standard macroeconomic models. These include chronic political instability, inefficient capital budget execution that hinders infrastructure development, and extreme vulnerability to external shocks, especially climate shocks.

This foresight analysis goes beyond standard forecasts. We conduct an in-depth study of four fundamental pillars of Nepal’s economy, identify three wild cards that could dramatically change the trajectory of development, and based on this, model three plausible scenarios for the country up to 2035. Our goal is to highlight the hidden risks and opportunities that will shape the future of this Himalayan nation and open up new horizons for investors and businesses.